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FORECAST OF EXTREME SOLAR EVENTS OF 2003
BY PROGNOSTIC EXPERT SYSTEM "FORSHOCK"
Markov V.V., Kozlov V.I., Kozlov V.V., Turpanov A.A., Yakovlev D.V.,
The recent results obtained in Yakutsk Center of a Space Weather IKFIA, indicate on possibility of the long-term prognosis of geoeffective periods of solar activity, on the average, with advance 3 solar rotations and operative prognosis of geoeffective events of a Space Weather with advance about ~1 day. With this purpose by us was the prognostic expert system "FORSHOCK" is created.
On base expert system "FORSHOCK" since August to September, 2003 (sun rotations 2319-2321) we registered a predictor of a seasonal (autumnal) maximum of geoefficiency heliospheric current sheet (http://ikfia.ysn.ru/fluctuations/). The maximum was expected for September - November 2003 (sun rotations 2322-2324). Really, in October - November the extreme manifestations of solar activity were registered. The registration predictors twice per one year corresponds to a known seasonal dependence of geoefficiency heliospheric current sheet. The level of activity in October, - November 2003 has appeared anomalously high that, generally speaking, it was necessary to expect, from the value predictor (second-largest, after predictor registered in February 2001).
The operative forecast were given 21, 24 and 26-27 October, 2003. The Forbush-effects were registered, accordingly, 22, 25 and 28-29 October 2003.