Solar Extreme Events of 2003:
Fundamental Science and Applied Aspects

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SPACE WEATHER FORECAST BASED ON SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE EVENTS
Ishkov V.N.,

The most essential to the forecast of space weather both in the Earth's environment, and in any area of a heliosphere, is the forecast solar flare events and their accompanying phenomena. Short-term geoeffective flare event forecasting is presently based on observation by the process of new magnetic flux emergences and its evolution: the magnitude and rate of emergence, its localization and interaction with already existing magnetic fields of the active region or outside of it. We can to consider the process of solar flare occurrence as an ORIGINAL PROCESS within common active region evolution. This physical process has the concrete beginning - the emergence of a new magnetic flux (NMF), (1 - 3 d.), maximum - the period of time when moderate and large flare occur, (2 - 3 d.), and the end - when the energy of NMF are realized fully. In all phases of active region evolution the emergences of new magnetic fluxes may occur. Their interactions with overlying magnetic fields will always cause flare activity increasing. The observational evidences of large NMF manifestations: - rapid growth of sunspot areas, usually it is greater than a factor 2 or more at the first day for sunspot groups with areas up to 300 m.v.h., greater than a factor of 1.5 on the second and third days ( time of evolution is about 1 - 3 days); - appearance of new large umbrae within the same penumbra, for large and complexes sunspot groups with area >1000 m.v.h. ( time of evolution is about 1 - 3 days); - fast complication of magnetic structure of a sunspot group at the expense of an appearance of new spots and umbrae which form gamma and delta-configurations (time evolution is from several hours to 1,5 days); - rapid evolution of the sunspot groups to D, E, F (ki, kc) Mc-Intosh classes (time of evolution is from several hours to 1.5 days); - appearance of compact arch filament systems (AFS), which visualizes EFR within active regions; the observations in the wings of H-alpha spectral line (+/-1 A) indicate the large numbers of micro flares in the arch footpoints; - sharp increase of soft X-ray background (1- 12,5 keV) - most essential for solar minimum activity phases. The consequences of large new magnetic flux emergences: - rapid proper motions one or more spots, umbrae or pores; - appearance of sheared magnetic configuration (shear) in regions immediately adjacent to the line of polarity reversal in the active region. The some essential observational peculiarities of the solar flare realization: - all large flare necessarily accompanied by moderate importance flares; - solar flares of large and moderate importance are not randomly distributed in time but form the successions; - in most cases they occurs within a certain limited time interval. The time interval, during which the bulk of large and moderate solar flares occur, we will call as 'THE PERIOD OF FLARE ENERGY RELEASE' (PFER). PFER occur on 1 - 3 days after the first evidences a new sufficiently powerful magnetic flux emergence. PFER may last from 16 to 80 hours (the average duration is about 55 +/- 30 h.) depending on the degree of AR's evolution, parameters of its magnetic fields, and characteristics of a new emerging fluxes. The method of solar flare predictions for large and proton solar flares has been put to advantageous test on Russian scientific satellites such as GRANAT, GAMMA, KORONAS-





Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, 2004